UK population forecast to reach 70 million by 2030

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UK population forecast to reach 70 million by 2030

27 April 2010 $0Avery powerful Panoramaprogramme on Mondaynight has turned the focus back to the prospect of the UK's population reaching 70 million in20 years' time, followed by substantial further growth. Whether ornot this projection is credible lies at the very heart of the immigrationdebate.$0$0Theseprojections are produced by the government's own statisticians in the Officefor National Statistics (ONS), now under the aegis of the newly independent UKStatistics Authority. Obviously such projections become more uncertain thefurther ahead one looks. The government makes hay with a 1960s projection forthe following 40 years which, by 2000, was spectacularly wrong. Back then theONS assumed that the baby boom would continue – and it didn't.$0$0Theirrecord has greatly improved in the half century since then. Indeed, at the20-year range which we are now discussing they have been accurate towithin 2.5%. But could they yet be wrong?$0$0Itis important to be clear that there are only three variables – deaths, birthsand net migration. The mass migration of recent years has made immigration byfar the largest factor – accounting for just over two thirds of the populationincrease projected forthe next 20 years. That is why we can usefully consider a broadpopulation policy without descending into absurdities like emulating China.$0$0Itis equally important to be clear that projections are not forecasts. By theirnature, they take no account of future changes in government policy and onlylimited account of economic developments. They are, essentially, a constructbased on assumptions about birth, death and immigration but they do show whatis very likely to happen unless very firm measures are taken. And the existingage-structure gives the projections some stability: all the mothers for thenext two decades have already been born, bar immigration. The questiontherefore resolves into whether these assumptions are convincing.$0$0Thesimplest is the death rate. Life expectancy has increased steadily since the1970s but the ONS principal projection conservatively assumes a lower rate ofimprovement in survival after 2033, down to 1% a year.$0$0Thebirth rate fluctuated hugely between 1945 and 1975 but since then has variedwithin a much narrower band. The most commonly used measure is the totalfertility rate (TFR), which shows the average number of children per woman iffertility patterns continue as at present. The TFR in 2008 was 1.95 (just belowthe 2.06 replacement rate) but the ONS took a more conservative assumption of1.84 for their latest principal projection.$0$0Themajor factor – net immigration – is rather more difficult. It reached a peak of245,000 in 2004, declining to 163,000 in 2008. The ONS has assumed that it willcontinue into the future at 180,000. The government argues that immigration hasfallen and implies that it will continue to fall, partly as a result of theirpoints based system. The main reason for the fall in 2008 was a sharp reductionin net migration from eastern Europe, which accounted for 95% of the drop (and,of course, had little or nothing to do with government policy). The ONS hastaken this into account and expects net migration from eastern Europe to fallto zero in five or six years' time. They have also tried to iron outfluctuations by looking at net migration over three-year periods. As foreconomic factors, the record shows that immigration falls in each recession butthen resumes its strong upward trend.$0$0Whatis inescapable is that immigration would have to fall very substantially toavoid the projected growth in population. Without any immigration at all,population would increase to 65 million on the birth and death rates assumed byONS. Net immigration would have to fall to 50,000 a year – a quarter of thelevel of recent years, and less than one third of the ONS assumption, toprevent the UK population reaching 70 million. How is that going to happen,without a radical change of immigration policy?$0$0Thatbrings us to the crux of the argument. Britain is already, with Holland, themost crowded country in Europe. Most immigrants go to London and thesouth-east. Schemes to oblige them to work and remain in places less attractiveto immigrants are unrealistic and unenforceable. There is a strong case to bemade that the quality of life and social cohesion of our society as a wholewill be severely affected by continued population growth on anything like thecurrent scale.$0$0Theview of the public is very clear. According to the latest Sunday Times, 74%think immigration into the UK is too high and the government'sown survey, conducted by the Department for Communities and LocalGovernment in February 2010, found that 77% want to see immigration reduced and50% want it reduced "by a lot". Of the ethnic respondents, 25% alsowished to see immigration reduced by a lot.$0$0Facedwith such a clear expression of public opinion, repeated in poll after poll,and with the practical consequences of mass immigration highlighted in thePanorama programme, it is surely the government's duty to take firm measures onimmigration policy to ensure that the population increase now projected doesnot take place. Instead, they seem to be in a state of denial.$0

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